China continues to grow its economy at around a 6% annual pace. China is the second-largest economy in the world in terms of total gross domestic product (GDP); however, on a GDP per capita basis, the nation remains a fraction of the size of the United States. While this is a fact, China continues to make a run at being the big dog on the block.
At TrueStar Advisors, we are forecasting continued growth in the 5 to 7 percent rage for the near-term future of five to seven years. With that said, we forecast the growth to be different from the prior decades; as it should be. China invested heavily in its domestic infrastructures such as dams, roads, airports, rail systems, and cities. Thinking forward, we believe the government will focus on lifestyle issues and the standard of living for its 1.4 billion people. For those following China, one must never forget to consider a large number of citizens living in rural poverty. For those in urban areas, lengthening life expectancy and reducing health care costs by cleaning the air initiatives is critical. Pollution has unquestionably affected China as a result of rapid industrialization. The result is widespread environmental and health issues which are compounded by an aging population. China’s average age is now equivalent to the U.S. and within 10 years of Japan. The long-term impact of China’s one-child policy through the abortion of female fetuses and infanticide continues to be a humanitarian issue ignored by the influential U.S. manufactures, such as those based in Silicon Valley. Infanticide is the unlawful killing of very young children. For those in northern China, air pollution from the burning of fossil fuels, principally coal, is causing residents to die on average 5.5 years sooner than they otherwise might according to various global watch groups.
Future growth will favor business and consumer services, as well as financial services and healthcare. This is something we are not losing track of and will continue to forecast on an internal basis. China is on track to overtake the U.S. in terms of the overall size of the economy within the next two decades. It will take more than a generation, though, for China to approach the U.S. in terms of GDP per capita. At the same time, we are keeping a close eye on the emerging nations of Nigeria and India for new infrastructure growth opportunities if for no other reason that the explosive population growth. This growth will favor business and consumer services, as well as financial services and healthcare.
The wildcards continue to be at play, and these cards are potent jokers. It takes only a clown, joker or two in a deck to change the course of history, and rest assured, there are jokers in China, Nigeria, India, and elsewhere that requires heightened awareness.
Now stand up and replay the YouTube video and dance. In the alternative, sit back and think about it while listening to Joe Walsh. sing about the lifestyle that has changed the U.S. There's some deep economic thinking that can be done while listening to Joe if simply Connect Dots.
Bitesize Bites is a public daily mini-podcast covering one item for those who want it fast. Bitesize Bites are designed to be "Think About It" items that should prompt immediate thought and action by many.
Connecting Dots is a public daily podcast that takes one or more topics and ties them together with logical and organized thought. Connecting Dots explains history, current events, and forecasts in a way that will make most nod their head with the realizations often not seen or thought of previously.
The TrueStar Podcast is a weekly public podcast by Paul and Paul, Paul Grant Truesdell the Chief Executive Officer and Paul Grant Truesdell, II the Chief Technology Officer. Paul and Paul's conversations are amazing, entertaining, and will open a lot of eyes.
The Blog is a public daily posting of a few items being discussed among the asset management team, changes, updates, and news about the firm, as well as a brief opinion or forecast.
Deep Dive is a weekly client only podcast where each episode is focused on a single topic and challenges the listener to actively participate in Connecting Dots for their individual benefit.
Current is a daily client only listing of items being discussed among the asset management team at TrueStar Advisors. Brief ideas and comments as to what is "current" and a focus of attention provides a bit of insight as to what is going on with your management team.
People's Bank of China announced a 1-percentage-point reduction in the Chinese central bank’s required reserve ratio effective October 15th. This is the third reserve ratio reduction in 2018 following the 100 and then a basis-point cuts announced in April and June. A basis point equals 1/100th of 1%, thus 100 BP = 1%.
The amount of cash that most banks must hold in reserve is now less than earlier this year. This is being done to reduce finacing costs and supr growth. Why? The economic drag from the esclating trade dispute with the United States is having significant effects on China. As Trump would say: Winning.
China will reportedly invest billions into infrastructure projects as the economy cools further. Spying and general hijinks by the Chinese industrialists, government officials and puppets, and bankers is slowing being reported by corrupted U.S. media outlets. We use the word "corrupted" because of the well documented "advertising dollar" pressure placed by foreign lobbyists (sales) for approved spin doctoring. (1)
The impact of reduced exports is real and showing the clout that he U.S. continues to have; however, that clout will not last for more than another decade at best.
The boom and potential bust of 55+ retirement communities, beginning around 2023 and 2033. The prospects for the next 15 years may be significantly different from the next 15 years.
(1) "We will bury you." Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev while addressing Western ambassadors at a reception at the Polish embassy in Moscow on November 18, 1956. Commonly referred to as "we will defeat you from within."
1 Trump Accuses Google of Suppressing Positive News About His Presidency We have noticed for years that the search for political and business topics are influenced by advertising and political opinions. This includes AOL, Yahoo, Google, and Bing.
2 Chipotle launches delivery service with DoorDash August 28, 2018 at 9:32 AM Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc said on Tuesday it would start a direct delivery service through a partnership with DoorDash, as it looks to attract more customers.
3 Tariffs on Chinese goods will cost Americans billions, retail association finds August 28, 2018 at 9:30 AM Tariffs on goods from China imported into the United States will cost American consumers roughly $6 billion a year, according to a study commissioned by the National Retail Federation (NRF). The report showed that the proposed 25% tariff on furniture from China would cost Americans $4.6 billion per year in added cost "even if retailers switched their sourcing to other foreign countries or U.S. furniture makers." A similar 25% tariff on travel items including luggage and handbags would add $1.2 billion to what American shoppers would pay for those items, "even if the goods no longer came from China," according to the research.
4 Instamojo targets $1 billion in transactions by 2019 August 28, 2018 at 9:25 AM by Prasannata Patwa Bengaluru: Instamojo Technologies Pvt. Ltd, a payment platform that caters to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), launched two new products on Tuesday, and said it was targeting $1 billion in gross transaction values by the end of 2018-19 from $200 million currently. The two new products, MojoXpress and MojoCapital, are part of the company’s larger strategy of becoming a one-stop service provider to the MSME sector, with an increasing number of these firms turning to digital marketing and selling. The company plans to expand its customer base to one million merchants by 2018-19. Instamojo website
5 UPS launches Ware2Go, a platform aimed at helping small- and mid-sized businesses expand August 28, 2018 at 9:25 AM Ware2Go will help match available warehouse space with merchants online orders to speed up the delivery process. UPS launched a new technology company called Ware2Go on Tuesday, aimed at connecting small- and medium-sized businesses with warehouses to help streamline online orders. Ware2Go recruits and certifies warehouses for merchants, allowing them to expand to new locations and keep up with new e-commerce growth. "This is really a technology and platform company – more than a services business – with merchants on one side, looking for order fulfillment capabilities, warehouses looking to fill space appropriately. We wanted to build that using the best of both worlds," said Nick Basford, vice president of global retail and e-commerce strategy for UPS. From the Ware2Go website: Ware2Go™ turnkey nationwide fulfillment network is designed to help merchants easily position products closer to end customers for a fast, inexpensive and reliable order-to-delivery experience. We offer an integrated solution for storage, pick, pack and shipping services to businesses of all sizes through an intuitive cloud based technology platform that makes it easy to extend your distribution footprint and scale up and down as your operational needs change. We simplify nationwide fulfillment to help you meet your customers' needs and expectations.
An Apple computer employee was arrested as the sought to leave the United States and return to China with self-driving vehicle trade secrets. Will this event further damage international relations?