For September, the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index showed that prices rose 5.2% year-over-year, down from the 6% range over the past year. The bullish case for housing is beginning to wane as rising interest rates are raising the cost of buying a home. Residential investment has also fallen in seven of the past eight quarters. We note, though, that unemployment is low and consumer confidence is high. And white-hot conditions aren’t always conducive to sustainable growth in housing.
In the post-World War II era, the U.S. has experienced 10 periods of economic growth; these expansions have averaged 20 quarters, or five years. Recent expansions have been more durable. The six expansions since 1960 have averaged 27 months.
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